German Teen Wins Wimbledon!!
This far-fetched headline became a reality in 1985 when
17-year old Boris Becker shocked the tennis world. Now, 19 year-old German, Alexander Zverev,
beat Federer on grass last week in Halle.
Could history repeat? Federer had won Halle eight times.
The top four hegemony of Djokovic, Murray, Federer, and
Nadal have ruled tennis like no other players in the open era, nailing down the
top two spots for the last 11 years.
Their rule will not last forever.
But it certainly doesn’t appear that the current top two, Djokovic and
Murray are not going away anytime soon; even if they are turning 30 next year.
But the knocks on the door from below are getting
louder. The heirs apparent are #28
Zverev, #21 Nick Kyrgios, and #8 Dominic Thiem.
There is no one younger ranked above them, at ages 19, 21 and 22,
respectively.
Becker was ranked #20 when he won Wimbledon in 1985. Now he is the coach of Novak Djokovic. Meanwhile, one of Becker’s chief rivals, Ivan
Lendl, is coaching Andy Murray. The head
to head between Becker and Lendl was 11-10 for Lendl, even though Lendl is 7.5
years older. Not to be outdone, Canadian
Milos Raonic has just hired John McEnroe to coach him through Wimbledon. Lendl was 21-15 over McEnroe.
Becker would seem to be in the driver’s seat in the proxy
battle of coaches, with Djokovic looking the strongest of the horses actually
running the race. But it was under Lendl
that Murray achieved his greatest success winning the Olympic gold, the US
Open, and Wimbledon in one glorious 12-month stretch. Can the Murray-Lendl tandem do it again?
Or can McEnroe add enough creativity to the fierce work
ethic of Raonic for him to carry away the trophy? And let’s not forget that Stan Wawrinka has
hired Richard Krajicek (Wimbledon champ 1996) to help him to victory. Or maybe this is the year of the
break-through? Will the young finally
storm the bastille and take it?
First Quarter
Up and coming Brit, Kyle Edmund, wily old Philipp
Kohlschreiber, or grass-o-phile Nicolas Mahut (victim in the longest match of
all time), will probably not cause Djokovic to break much sweat as he sails to
the quarter-finals.
The other half of this section should favour Raonic (seeded
6) over Jack Sock (27), Kevin Anderson (20), and David Goffin (11). Goffin is having a career year (so far) and
Anderson is a massive 6’8” and no grass court slouch. But Raonic has been to the semis before and
seems to be in the best form of his life.
He could cause a lot of troubles with his serve for Djokovic, but even
with McEnroe in his corner, taking down the wall of pure tennis awesomeness the
Serb presents will be nearly impossible.
Djokovic d. Raonic
Second Quarter
On the one hand, Federer just lost on grass to two of the
Next Gen stars (as branded by the ATP), Thiem and Zverev. This is no mean feat considering Fed’s grass
court greatest-of-all-time rep and may indicate that the glory days are
past. But on the other hand, given the
extensive layoffs of Roger’s year so far, the fact that he won five matches on
grass could show him rounding nicely into form.
Is Fed done? Does he still have a
realistic shot at this year’s title?
Let’s not forget he’s been in the final the last two years. But at age 34, his days are numbered. A Federer-esque talent could string together
another slam title run. But I think the
grass losses this year mean more than just being part of the comeback
trail. I think Federer’s last best shot
at slam #18 was last year. Watch him
prove me wrong.
I’ll still pick Fed for a run to the quarters over Monfils
(17) or Simon (16). But then I’ll expect
he’ll be running into Marin Cilic (9) who I’m picking over Nishikori (5).
Cilic d. Federer
Third Quarter
Dominic Thiem (8) and Florian Mayer have had the extreme bad
luck to run into each other in the first round at this year’s Wimbledon. No one was taking Thiem seriously on grass
until he beat Federer and took the title in Stuttgart this year. But the very next week, Mayer took out Thiem
in the semis of Halle and won the title over Zverev. All three have the potential to go deep at
Wimbledon. Mayer has been to the
quarters twice before. So the
Mayer/Thiem clash will be THE first-rounder to watch.
The winner of that match could face Zverev (24) in the
fourth round... although there is the looming figure of Tomas Berdych (10),
2010 finalist, for Zverev to encounter first.
It’s a dense little section and all four could be favoured about
equally, but I’ll take Zverev, the German teen.
Across the way, Wawrinka is seeded four, and slated in the
first to face another revelation of 2016, Taylor Fritz (no he is not a female
country singer). The 18 year-old Fritz
has shot up from #174 at the beginning of the year to an astonishing #63. He managed to win a match on grass in
Stuttgart before pushing Federer through three very tight sets. I’ll expect Wawrinka to make it through, but
an upset would not be a shock.
Wawrinka could then run into a returning Juan Martin Del
Potro, 2009 US Open champion, former world #4, and one-time Wimbledon
semi-finalist. The fourth round could
bring up talented but under-achieving Bernard Tomic (19), former
quarter-finalist. If Wawrinka can pass
all these tests, he should be able to handle the survivor of the
Thiem-Mayer-Zverev-Berdych cage fight.
Wawrinka d. Zverev
Fourth Quarter
Andy Murray (2) is in stupendous form this year and might be
halfway to a grand slam himself, were it not for Djokovic. The facts that he made the French final on
his least successful surface, and has just re-united with Lendl in time for his
most successful surface, should make everyone else afraid.
He could run into Feliciano Lopez (22), a three-time
quarter-finalist, in the fourth round, or Nick Kyrgios (15). Kyrgios took Nadal out of Wimbledon two years
ago, making the quarters, and has just reached a career-high ranking. Watching his powerful game, fast feet, and
amazing hands has prompted many to deem him a future slam champion. He hasn’t realized that yet, but at age 21
still has lots of time. He’s
dangerous. He’s also lost four times to
Murray without a win.
The other top two seeds in this quarter are Frenchmen
Richard Gasquet (7) and the mercurial Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12). John Isner (18) has a tricky opening against
Marcos Baghdatis and could run into Tsonga in the third. Last year’s quarter-finalist, Canadian Vasek
Pospisil, could meet Gasquet in the third.
Gasquet and Tsonga have both been to the semis twice before, but Gasquet
more recently, so I’ll pick him as Murray’s victim in the quarter. Murray leads the head to head 8-3.
Murray d. Gasquet
Semis
Djokovic and Cilic have played at Wimbledon twice before
with Novak taking both encounters. Cilic pushed him to five sets in the 2014
quarters, but at the end of the day, Djokovic sports a perfect 14-0 record over
Marin, and I don’t see that changing in Novak’s present form.
Djokovic d. Cilic
Wawrinka has not been to the Wimbledon semis before, making
quarters the last two years. His long
swings are not well-suited for grass, so I’m counting on the relationship with
coach Krajicek to assist in getting him through a tough draw. It could very well be Thiem, Zverev, or
Berdych in this slot, but I doubt the outcome will be much different.
Murray d. Wawrinka.
Final
Can Andy actually beat Novak when it counts? For both of Murray’s slam titles he faced
Djokovic in the final. But Murray hasn’t
beaten him on the slam stage since then, three years ago. During that time, the head to head has gone
from 11-8 for Djokovic to 24-10. That’s
13 wins in the last 15 matches.
But if there is ever a chance, this is it. Murray is on his best surface. He has Lendl in his corner. Djokovic has just completed the career slam
(at Roland Garros) so may be ripe for a let down. Pressure to win the calendar year Grand Slam could
weigh on Djokovic, and the still living form of Rod Laver has already been
invoked by the press. We saw what
happened to Serena at last year’s US Open, and what happened to Navratilova in
the 1984 Australian – faltering just short of the finish.
Djokovic d. Murray
He’s just too good.
If he wins, Djokovic will become only the second man to win five
slams in a row, with the following caveats.
Several men from the old days won five or more slams in a row, in slams
that they entered – that is non-consecutive slams – since travel was not easy
in those days and the status of the majors was not well-established. These include Tilden, Wilding, Sears,
WRenshaw, and Larned. If we include the
pro-slams of the professional era (1927-1967), and the ILTF majors (1912-1924)
the list looks like this:
Consecutive titles from majors entered
|
Tilden
|
9
|
W1920 -
U1925
|
|
Budge
|
9
|
W1937 -
USPro1940
|
|
Rosewall
|
9
|
FrPro1960
- Wem1963
|
|
Wilding
|
8
|
A1909 -
WHCC1914
|
|
Sears
|
7
|
U1881 -
U1887
|
|
WRenshaw
|
6
|
W1881 -
W1886
|
|
Larned
|
5
|
U1907 -
U1911
|
|
Vines
|
5
|
Wem1934
- USPro1939
|
|
Kramer
|
5
|
U1946 -
Wem1949
|
|
Djokovic
|
4
|
W2015 -
F2016
|
|
Laver
|
4
|
A1969 -
U1969
|
|
Laver
|
4
|
Wem1966
- Wem1967
|
|
Laver
|
4
|
A1962 -
U1962
|
|
Nusslein
|
4
|
FPro1937
- Wem1938
|
|
RFDoherty
|
4
|
W1897 -
W1900
|
(On the women’s side, Helen Wills won 14 consecutive majors
that she entered.)
Of the men’s list, only Don Budge in 1937-38 won the same four
slams that are contested today, consecutively, winning six in a row. The only other person to win at least four of
these same slams in a row was Rod Laver, twice, in 1962 and 1969. Budge did not face the best players of his
day in 1938 since most had turned pro and played on another circuit (whose
players were not eligible to play the slam tournaments). Four of the top five that year would have
included Perry, Vines, and Nusslein (all of whom had turned pro), and Von Cramm
who was banned from play by the Nazis.
So Budge’s slam comes with a major asterisk, as does his run of six
major titles from 1937 Wim to 1938 US.
Similarly, Laver’s 1962 slam also occurred in the absence of the four
best professionals of his day, namely Rosewall, Hoad, Gimeno, and
Gonzales. So both the 1938 and 1962 slams
are somewhere between Edberg’s junior slam of 1983 and the modern Open Era
Grand Slam, in my estimation.
But Laver’s 1969 slam requires no asterisks. It was legitimate because tennis was open at
that time and all the best players of the day were allowed to play the
slams. It remains a unique achievement,
equalled only by the three Grand Slams achieved in the women’s game (Connolly
1953, Court 1970, Graf 1988). Given the
greater depth in the sport today, I would say Djokovic’s accomplishment of
holding all four slam titles simultaneously already surpasses Laver’s 1969
slam, but that is just my opinion.
If Djokovic should win this Wimbledon it will be his 4th
title here, and his 13th slam singles title, making him eighth on
the all-time list, 4th in the Open Era (since 1968).
Major Singles Titles
|
Rosewall
|
23
|
|
Laver
|
19
|
|
Federer
|
17
|
|
Tilden
|
15
|
|
Gonzales
|
14
|
|
Sampras
|
14
|
|
Nadal
|
14
|
|
Emerson
|
12
|
|
Djokovic
|
12
|
|
Borg
|
11
|
|
Cochet
|
11
|
|
Perry
|
10
|
|
Budge
|
10
|
Those unaccustomed to seeing the professional slams of the
1927-1967 era and the ILTF majors (1912-1924) included, may be surprised at
this list. But this is a more complete list than is often presented of slam winners,
and it more accurately represents the history of the men’s game. That said, it is not a good proxy, in my
opinion, for a greatest of all time list.
That requires other metrics, I believe.
I happily refer anyone interested to the excellent site thetennisbase.com
If Djokovic wins this Wimbledon he will join John McEnroe at
8th on the list of matches won at Wimbledon, with 59 wins (providing
he gets no walkovers).
Matches won at Wimbledon:
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Ratio
|
|
|
Connors
|
84
|
18
|
0.8235
|
|
Federer
|
79
|
10
|
0.8876
|
|
Becker
|
71
|
12
|
0.8554
|
|
AWGore
|
64
|
26
|
0.7111
|
|
Sampras
|
63
|
7
|
0.9000
|
|
Ritchie
|
62
|
24
|
0.7209
|
|
Emerson
|
60
|
14
|
0.8108
|
|
McEnroe
|
59
|
11
|
0.8429
|
|
Austin
|
56
|
13
|
0.8116
|
|
Borotra
|
55
|
10
|
0.8462
|
|
Djokovic
|
52
|
8
|
0.8667
|
|
Borg
|
51
|
4
|
0.9273
|
|
Laver
|
50
|
7
|
0.8772
|
|
Drobny
|
50
|
16
|
0.7576
|
|
Edberg
|
49
|
12
|
0.8033
|
|
Ivanisevic
|
49
|
14
|
0.7778
|
Federer could possibly catch Connors for top spot this year,
if he makes the semis. Andy Murray is
the next highest active player after Djokovic, with 46 wins.
Looking at total matches won in the majors (as described
above), we get:
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Ratio
|
|
|
Federer
|
302
|
50
|
0.858
|
|
Rosewall
|
242
|
46
|
0.840
|
|
Connors
|
233
|
49
|
0.826
|
|
Agassi
|
224
|
53
|
0.809
|
|
Lendl
|
222
|
49
|
0.819
|
|
Djokovic
|
221
|
34
|
0.867
|
|
Emerson
|
210
|
48
|
0.814
|
|
Sampras
|
203
|
38
|
0.842
|
|
Nadal
|
200
|
30
|
0.870
|
|
Laver
|
179
|
36
|
0.833
|
Djokovic is currently 7th in the list of
consecutive matches won in majors entered, but will likely move up to 3rd
if he wins 7 in a row to take Wimbledon.
Consecutive match wins in majors entered
57 Tilden
(1920 W – 1926 US)
47 Budge (1937 W – 1941 USPro)
34 Rosewall (1960 Wem – 1964 USPro)
31 Kramer (1946 US – 1950 USPro)
29 Wilding (1909 A – 1914 W)
29 Laver (1969 A – 1970 W)
28 Djokovic (2015 W – 2016 F)
47 Budge (1937 W – 1941 USPro)
34 Rosewall (1960 Wem – 1964 USPro)
31 Kramer (1946 US – 1950 USPro)
29 Wilding (1909 A – 1914 W)
29 Laver (1969 A – 1970 W)
28 Djokovic (2015 W – 2016 F)
Here are the decimal odds for this Wimbledon from bet365.com
on Jun 17, 2016:
|
1
|
Djokovic
|
1.72
|
|
2
|
Murray
|
4
|
|
3
|
Federer
|
9
|
|
4
|
Raonic
|
17
|
|
5
|
Wawrinka
|
19
|
|
6
|
Kyrgios
|
23
|
|
7
|
Nishikori
|
29
|
|
8
|
Dimitrov
|
51
|
|
9
|
Tsonga
|
51
|
|
10
|
Berdych
|
51
|
|
11
|
Del Potro
|
51
|
|
12
|
Thiem
|
51
|
|
13
|
Cilic
|
67
|
|
14
|
Gasquet
|
81
|
|
15
|
Isner
|
81
|
|
16
|
AZverev
|
81
|
|
17
|
Tomic
|
126
|
|
18
|
KAnderson
|
126
|
|
19
|
FLopez
|
151
|
|
20
|
Ferrer
|
151
|
|
21
|
Kohlschreiber
|
151
|
|
22
|
Karlovic
|
151
|
|
23
|
Monfils
|
151
|
|
24
|
Coric
|
201
|
|
25
|
Sock
|
201
|
|
26
|
Goffin
|
201
|
|
27
|
Janowicz
|
201
|
|
28
|
Muller
|
201
|
|
29
|
Dolgopolov
|
201
|
|
30
|
Gulbis
|
201
|
|
31
|
Pospisil
|
201
|
|
32
|
Bautista-Agut
|
201
|
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