Wimbledon Women 2014

Wimbledon Women 2014 – 21 Jun 2014

Despite all her slam falters of late, Serena Williams is still the favourite.  When she’s on she seems unbeatable.  But will she wobble again?

It seems Maria Sharapova is most likely to capitalize on a Serena hiccup.  She and Serena lead the WTA this year for titles won with three each.  Next are Ivanovic and Li with two each.  Surprisingly Azarenka, Aggie Radwanska, Kvitova, and Wozniacki – the top title-getters of the last three years, aside from Serena – have no titles this year.  Is that mid-career quartet down and out, or can they still threaten for a big title?  And what about the youth brigade of Simona Halep, Eugenie Bouchard, Garbine Muguruza, Sloane Stephens, and Madison Keys?

First Quarter

Four of my favourites are in this section, so I expect the eventual tournament winner to emerge from this quarter.  Just like at the French, Serena Williams (seeded 1) and Sharapova (5) are in the same quarter.  And just like the French, Sharapova will be favoured for the quarter and the title if Serena loses.

French Open semi-finalists Bouchard (13) and Petkovic (20) could face off in the third round for the right to face Serena in the fourth.  Bouchard is a former Wimbledon junior champion and made the third round on her debut last year.  I could easily see her in the semis or even final with a different draw.  As it is, I don’t see her beating both Serena and Sharapova/Kerber.

In addition to Sharapova, the 2^nd eighth features former semi-finalists Kerber (9) and Flipkens (24) in a potential 4R clash.  I think Flipkens was a bit of a fluke during last year’s Wimblegeddon, but Kerber is a genuine grass court talent.  If Sharapova has trouble adjusting to the grass and staying low, she could well go out to the compact Kerber.

3rd  Round	4th Round	Quarters
	SWilliams (1)
Bouchard (13)
Petkovic (20)
Kerber (9)
Flipkens (24)
	Sharapova (5)

SWilliams d. Sharapova

Second Quarter

This quarter looks decidedly second rate compared to the loaded first quarter.  That doesn’t make picking a winner any easier, as the talent here is largely at a consistent level.  Recent French finalist Simona Halep (3) is the highest seed.  She has virtually no pedigree on grass – 3R last year – but her low-to-the-ground style and accurate shot placement bode well for her 2014 incarnation.

Young talents Belinda Bencic (born 1997) and Victoria Duval (1995) are possible 3R opponents for Halep.  The fourth could bring up Vinci (seeded 21) who made 4R here the last two years, French quarter-finalist Suarez Navarro (15), or perhaps even Vera Zvonareva, finalist from 2010.  Zvonareva made an unsuccessful return to the tour this January after 1.5 years away.  She went 1-4 through Indian Wells and hasn’t played since.  Despite her talent and former results, there is nothing to suggest she will display the form to cause any concern to the favourites.

The other eighth contains the Serbs Ivanovic (11) and Jankovic (7) as its highest seeds.  Jankovic is a consistent grass court threat with four 4^th round performances at Wimbledon.  Ivanovic has likewise made 4R four times, and one of those materialized into a SF showing, in 2007.  Jankovic has the prospect of facing one of the talented young trio of Townsend (b 1996), Keys (1995), or Puig (1993) in the third round.  Keys has just won her first grass title, and first WTA-level title at Eastbourne.  A SF run is well within reason.

Ivanovic faces the tantalizing prospect of a match with the impossibly grass-lethal Sabine Lisicki.  Despite middling results everywhere else, Lisicki has been to the quarters or better here the last 4 years, making the final last year after taking out Serena.  It’s hard to say why she is so good here and so bad elsewhere, but her consistency and grass talent cannot be ignored.  This is a quarter in which she can shine.

3rd  Round	4th Round	Quarters
	Halep (3)
Vinci (21)
Suarez Navarro (15)
Ivanovic (11)
Lisicki (19)
Keys (u)
Jankovic (7)

Lisicki d. Halep

Third Quarter

The third quarter opens with two big question marks over potential 3R opponents Victoria Azarenka (8) and Garbine Muguruza (27).  Azarenka has played only match since a QF loss at the Australian in January.  She’s young, a fearsome competitor, and a former #1 so she cannot be ignored, but comes in without a match played in 4 months.  If she can squeak through her first match she may be able to play her way into form.  More likely, rust will pop up at an unexpected time and she’ll go down to a lower ranked opponent.

Muguruza stunned the tennis world by decimating Serena and having Sharapova on the ropes at the French in a QF finish.  She is an unknown quantity on grass and has a tricky opener against newly crowned s’Hertogenbosch champ, Coco Vandeweghe.  With the weakness of the draw around her, Vandeweghe has a chance to make the quarters.  Seeded to meet Azarenka in 4R is Australian finalist Dominika Cibulkova (10), who made the quarter-finals here in 2011.

The 6^th eighth could showcase a third round match between two-time slam champ Kuznetsova (28) and Agnieszka Radwanska (4).  ARad was runner-up at Wimbledon two years ago, but is by no means a given in a showdown with Kuznetsova who has thrice made the QFs at the big W and sports a 10-4 record over Radwanska, including only one loss since 2008.  The survivor could have easy fare in 4R before arriving in the quarters.

3rd  Round	4th Round	Quarters
Azarenka (8)
Muguruza (27)
	Cibulkova (10)
	Errani (14)
Kuznetsova (28)
ARadwanska (4)

ARadwanska d. Cibulkova

Fourth Quarter

After the weak-looking 3^rd quarter, the bottom section features world #2 and Australian Open champion Li Na (2).  Li had played well all year until her first round implosion at Roland Garros.  Now that the pressure of a potential calendar slam is buried, I expect Li to play closer to her talent and potential at Wimbledon.  Potential 4^th round opponents for Li include Wozniacki (16) and Stosur (17). 

Stosur has puzzlingly made three finals at Wimbledon in doubles but never been past 3R in singles.  Wozniacki was #1 has recently as 2012 but has fallen to #16 on the computer.  She seems to be halting the slide temporarily with a SF showing at Eastbourne on grass this week.  She has been to 4R at Wimbledon three times, but despite these positive signs she’s struggled at the slams, making it past 3R only once in the last 9 slams.

The opposing eighth is headlined by 2011 champ Petra Kvitova (6) who could run into 5-time Wimbledon champion Venus Williams (30) in 3R.  Nearby is slam over-achiever Sloane Stephens (18) who could run into Lauren Davis (u) in 3R.  Davis just took out Errani in a QF showing at Eastbourne.  A Kvitova-Stephens 4R match-up could be fascinating, but overall I think Petra’s record of four consecutive QF or better performances at Wimbledon is likely to continue.

3rd  Round	4th Round	Quarters
Kvitova (6)
VWilliams (30)
Stephens (18)
Davis (u)
Wozniacki (16)
Stosur (17)
	Li (2)

Kvitova d. Li

Semi-finals

All four of my predicted semi-finalists have been to the final before.  Perhaps equally likely to be added to their number is Sharapova who is in the loaded first quarter.

The potential semi between Serena and Lisicki could be a fascinating rematch of the last year’s best Wimbledon match, from which Lisicki emerged triumphant.  In the past, Serena rarely lost twice to the same person.  Her desire for revenge seemed too strong.  But recently she has looked more vulnerable and the result is by no means a foregone conclusion.  Nevertheless I think Serena has more tools in her kit.

SWilliams d. Lisicki

I’ve predicted 2012 finalist ARadwanska against 2011 champ Kvitova for the second semi.  Radwanska is a counter puncher who seems to do well on grass by staying low and redirecting shots with her quick and accurate hands.  Kvitova on the other hand is a bull-in-the-china bomber who fires missiles recklessly to all parts of the court.  Kvitova has certainly demonstrated that she can be massively inconsistent, but like Lisicki, seems to do well at SW19.  If she’s on she could steamroll Radwanska.  But Aggie showed, in stealing the second set from Serena in the 2012 final, that she is remarkably resilient and can survive the onslaught.  I think there’s a strong chance Kvitova could derail before the semis, but if she faces ARad, I give the edge to Kvitova.

Kvitova d. ARadwanska

Final

I doubt that Kvitova will get this far, although considering her draw and her competition I’ve somehow deemed her most likely to do so…  If she does make the final, she could provide a real challenge for Serena.  The two engaged in a deadly fight in 2012, won by Serena.  I believe Kvitova has the tools to go one better this time, but overall, the odds of a Serena triumph are better.

SWilliams d. Kvitova

Odds from Betfair on 20 Jun 2014

Player	Odds
SWilliams	2.72
Sharapova	9.8
Kvitova	16
Li	18
Halep	19.5
Azarenka	20
ARadwanska	21
Bouchard	23
Lisicki	26
Muguruza	34
Ivanovic	44
Wozniacki	44
VWilliams	65
Kerber	70
Stephens	70
Cibulkova	80
Vandeweghe	80
Keys	85
Mladenovic	100
Giorgi	110
Pironkova	120
Jankovic	130
Stosur	170
Safarova	170