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Roland Garros 2014 Predictions - Men

Roland Garros – Men’s Preview 2014
21 May 2014

To my mind there are five men who are real contenders for this year’s French title.  Given that 4-time defending champ Rafael Nadal has won 8 times in the last 9 years, this might seem a surprise.  The obvious rival is Novak Djokovic – who just beat him last week on clay in the Italian final.  The other contenders are Nishikori, who had Nadal on the ropes in Madrid before getting injured while just two service holds from the match; and Wawrinka, who won the 1000 in Monte Carlo.  The fifth contender is the insanely talented Federer, who beat Djokovic in the semis but lost the Monte Carlo final to Wawrinka.  I also wouldn’t frown too deeply at anyone nominating Ferrer to join this august list, especially since he beat Nadal in Monte Carlo.  But on balance I don’t count him as likely to win the title.

There are of course a host of other players that could pull some upsets or even win the title if the draw went apocalyptic, but their chances are slim at best.  Time for some deeper analysis...

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic
It’s hard not to like the humble bull of Mallorca, especially when it comes to laying your money down at the bookies.  The guy is a consistent, reliable performer... with only one freakish loss ever (to Soderling) on the hallowed terre battue.  Perhaps his greatest escape came last year in the semis to Djokovic.  After blowing an easy smash that could have set up game point to take him to one hold from victory, Djokovic instead tried to hang tough for another 8 games but ultimately succumbed to Nadal 9-7 in the fifth. 

Such is Rafa’s dominance that it was only the second time he’d had to play 5 sets at Roland Garros – the other a first-rounder over Isner in 2011.  Nadal may have won, but it showed Djokovic was getting closer.  Novak has now beaten Nadal 4 times on clay, but all have been best of 3 set matches.  Last year he showed how close he is in a best of 5-set match... can Djokovic go one further this year?

After the win in Rome, momentum would seem to be with Djokovic.  There had been questions about his recovery from a wrist injury, but he showed no sign of it in Italy.  He seemed to get stronger in the final, rolling over Nadal 3 and 3 in the final two sets after Nadal took the first 6-4. 

But Nadal also has momentum.  He’s looked very shaky (for Nadal) on clay this year, with losses to Novak, Almagro, and Ferrer, and a rather tenuous injury-aided win over Nishikori after being dominated for most of two sets.  But he did win Madrid, and he did make the final in Rome.  Moreover, he seemed to be playing better and better as the tournament unfolded, playing well in taking apart Murray, and at a high level in the final.  

If he does face Djokovic, he will have six matches to get ready for the encounter.  But will he get there?  At no time has Nadal looked more vulnerable at the French than now.  The 2009 Soderling loss was a shocker out of nowhere.  This time around, a Nadal loss would not stun the cognoscenti.  But neither would a Nadal victory.  In fact he is still most observers’ and the bookies’ favourite – but just narrowly.  Although a loss to Nishikori or Dimitrov or even an outsider like Thiem could happen, it’s unlikely, and if it comes down to the final against Novak, it’s hard to pick against the 8-time champ.

On the other hand, Djokovic has stated that the French is the most important tournament of his year – his biggest focus.  He’s done everything to show that he is serious and that he’s peaking at exactly the right time.  Nadal is not getting any younger.  Already the hordes are whispering about his 28th birthday, which happens in the second week of the tournament.  Nadal will not go on winning the French forever.  Is this the year?

If this clash should come, I’ll probably look back at the 6 victories each man has made to reach the final and try to determine who has been more dominant, especially in the last 2 or 3 matches.  That will be most telling and will make up my mind.  But for now, with total lack of confidence, I predict a Nadal win, by a hair over Novak.

Stats corner:  Nadal has won more singles matches at the French than any male in history.  Djokovic is on a 19 tournament streak of QF or better finishes at the majors – if he extends to 20 he will be fourth all time behind Federer, Connors, and Tilden.

Stan Wawrinka
I’d say about 90% of the odds are split between Nadal and Djokovic for the title.  That leaves only 10% for the remaining dogs to fight over.  And the biggest chunk of that I warrant to Wawrinka.

It would be a huge story – Wawrinka wins the first two legs of the grand slam.  This hasn’t happened since Jim Courier in 1992.  Only three men in the open era have backed up an Australian title with the French – Courier, Wilander (twice), and the immortal Rod Laver during his slam run of ‘69.

Over the last year and half, Stan has martialled his resources and has risen to the peak of his powers.  Fifth set losses to Djokovic last year in Australia and the US Open (semis) finally culminated in the elusive slam title in Melbourne.  Since then, he’s gone on to join the winner’s circle at 1000 events – a circle only marginally larger among active players than that for Major winners – the Big 4 plus Ferrer, Berdych, Tsonga, Hewitt, and Davydenko.  But can he do it on clay?

Clay is his best surface with a lifetime 0.659 match winning rate, 0.769 in the last 52 weeks.  But it will not surprise me if Stan does not perform well at the French.  He’s likely not as reliable a pick for a deep run as proven performer like Federer or Ferrer.  Wawrinka has shown us a great high in his performance, but it’s probably asking for too much to expect him to deliver it day in, day out, the way the multi-slam winners have done.  But this is a slam, so it’s a perfect opportunity for Stan to peak again.  He probably can’t unseat both Djokovic and Nadal, although that is exactly what he did in Australia.

Kei Nishikori
Kei was not on my radar has a potential French champ just three weeks ago.  But he proceeded to win Barcelona, that 8-time bastion of Nadalism; and had Nadal on the ropes in Madrid, fist cocked for the knockout, but then fell to injury himself.  The concern is whether he will be at 100% for Roland Garros, and if his body will be able to handle best of 5 set marathons every other day for two weeks.

If his body holds up, he is a very serious contender, capable of taking out anyone and winning the whole thing.  But even healthy, he may not have the consistency to guarantee a deep run to the semis or further.  Unfortunately, I’m expecting he’ll likely succumb to injury at some point.

He’ll come in as the 9th seed, which means he could run into one of the big boys as early as the fourth round.  He may still have enough juice in the tank to pull a major upset and I hope we have a chance to see him go as far as his talent allows.

Roger Federer
If this year has shown me anything it’s that Federer can never be counted out.  By the end of last year things were looking bleak.  He’d run up a number of losses to low-ranked players, had his record streak of consecutive quarter finals in Majors stopped at 36 (nine years, what a slacker!), eventually fell to #8 in the world, and was looking generally old and vulnerable.  But he righted the ship with a SF run in Australia, a title in Dubai, and two victories this year over Djokovic.

Sad truth is I don’t see him capable of beating Nadal – especially on clay.  Anyone else would be at least possible.  For Roger to take this title, someone else will have to take out Nadal for him.  If that happens, Federer could be dangerous, although I’d still favour Djokovic and possibly Wawrinka or Nishikori if it came down to it.  The old boy may have another title run left in the tank, but it’s probably at Wimbledon.

Other Pretenders
David Ferrer beat Nadal on clay this year, in Monte Carlo.  And he made the French final last year.  But he’s looked a whisker less sharp, and when the rubber meets the road I can’t see him taking the title.  He may have moved from most eligible bachelor to spinster.

Grigor Dimitrov is finally showing the talent he’s been so long lauded for.  He’s at a new high of #12, evidence of two tournament wins this year, complemented by notches over Raonic, Berdych, and Murray.  He probably could take out Nadal or Djokovic, but probably won’t.  I still think he has a future Major in him, but needs just a little more time – another year or two.

Milos Raonic has entrenched himself in the top 10 and showed some clay chops with a SF run in Rome, giving Djokovic a real scare.  His huge game is probably best on hard courts.  He might be capable of an upset at the French, but the title is too big an ask for now.

Andy Murray has not thriven on clay, even if he was a super tough out for Nadal in the Rome quarters.  Repeating 2012’s QF run in Paris would be a nice result for him and would take to 13 his streak of QF or better finishes in majors he’s played.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is likely the best hope for a hometown winner, and while beating any of the above players on clay could happen, taking down two or three of them is probably nigh impossible.

The Draw

(This section written 23 May)

First Quarter
Nadal is deservedly the #1 seed, but his draw could get tricky.  The first round against Ginepri is probably unlosable, although fast-rising Dominic Thiem in the second could be less predictable.  Round 4 could bring up Tommy Haas (seeded 16) or Nicolas Almagro (21) who beat him in Barcelona.  Realistically, I don’t give Almagro much of a chance against the king, especially over 5 sets.

The lower section features Grigor Dimitrov (11) and Ferrer (5) as potential 4R opponents.  Ferrer has proven pedigree on clay, but the significant gifts of Dimitrov are not to be underestimated.  Either one is capable of taking out Rafa on a good day, and Ferrer has already done it this year in Monte Carlo.  Ferrer’s head to head with Nadal is a discouraging 6-21, but the 6 means he cannot be counted out.  Ferrer has won 2 of the last 3, and has two wins on clay.  For Dimitrov’s part, I think having to take out Ferrer and Nadal consecutively would be more than he can handle.  The consistent Ferrer will probably run him ragged.  Till then, there’s a potentially entertaining match between Seppi and Giraldo to tide us through round one.

Nadal d. Ferrer


Second Quarter
Stan Wawrinka (3) could hardly have asked for clearer passage.  Garcia-Lopez in the first could produce an upset, but once he has his sea-legs, it should be relatively smooth sailing for the Swiss.  His load may be further lightened in having both Monfils (23) and Gasquet (12) in his quarter.  Both are certainly formidable on clay, but both have been suffering from injuries this spring and the chance that either or both could pull out is high.  It’s not clear to me if the draw would then be remade with a shuffling of the seeds or if lucky losers from qualifying would get the spots – it may depend on timing.

So that could put Fabio Fognini (14) into a 4R slot with Wawrinka.  Fognini is supremely talented and a fine clay-courter, but seems to lack match discipline and has shown no mettle on the big stage.  An upset is possible, but unlikely.

The bottom half of the section features Andy Murray (7) who is playing back into form but is far from his best on clay.  Kohlschreiber (28) in 3R or Verdasco (24) in R4 could be more than Murray can handle, but they are both aging and with Gasquet likely below par, I favour the Scot for a cream puff walk to a QF clash with Wawrinka.

If Wawrinka brings his best clay game, victory should be well within his reach, but Murray has shown a few times that he can find a groove on clay, with previous SF and QF finishes in Paris.  His best may not be enough against a clay natural like The Man.

Wawrinka d. Murray


Third Quarter
It really is a Swiss-friendly draw.  Federer (4) himself could hardly have stacked it more favourably.  He should have an easy trip through the first week and is seeded to meet Ernests Gulbis (18) or Mikhail Youzhny (15) in round four.  Both are very talented with games that could take out the Fed on a good day.  Gulbis especially has been riding the wave of formerly-underachieving-young-guns-finally-making-good-in-2014, like Dimitrov, Dolgopolov, Nishikori, and Raonic (but where is Tomic?).  But despite all Ernests’s explosive gifts, I’d expect the incisive disciplines of Federer to ultimately dissect the Latvian.

The top portion of the quarter is headlined by Tomas Berdych (6).  Berdych could get into all kinds of trouble in 3R against 2014 revelation Roberto Bautista Agut (27), who has a winning record against the Berd 2-1.  That could give Tommy Robredo an excellent chance to make his 9th fourth round at the French, provided he survives a potential matchup with John Isner (10) in 3R.

If Berdych does somehow claw his way through, he should be heartened to remember he has 5 victories over Roger in their last 9 matches.

Federer d. Berdych


Fourth Quarter
Djokovic (2) has not been handed a cake-walk.  Joao Sousa in the first is a solid young clay player, and Chardy in 2R can never be underestimated.  Third round could bring up former top-tenner Marin Cilic (25) or clay specialist Pablo Andujar.  After that Tsonga (13) is likely, who owns 5 wins over Novak and a 5-set loss to the Serb at Roland Garros in 2012.  It’s a test that a focussed Djokovic should pass, but is by no means easy.

The upper portion features 3 of the afore-mentioned formerly underachieving young guns, Raonic (8), Dolgopolov (20), and Nishikori (9), rounded off with a dose of Gilles Simon (29).  Raonic is in a particularly youth-laden section and his first rounder with 19 year old Nick Kyrgios definitely piques my interest.  That appetizer could be followed by the young monster, Jiri Vesely.

Of the seeds in this section, Nishikori should be the favourite based on his recent outstanding results on clay.  I’m hesitant to pick him because of his legendary penchant for injury retirement.  Raonic could certainly push even a healthy Nishikori, and overall it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the names mentioned in the previous paragraph appeared in the quarter-final slot.

Nishikori or Raonic are certainly capable of taking down Novak, but the odds have to be with Djokovic to prevail.

Djokovic d. Nishikori


Semis and Final
Picking the top four seeds to come through hardly seems like going out on a limb, and there are certainly many perils that could derail the trip for any of them.  But the seedings reflect a reality that should increase the odds of predictability.

Wawrinka managed to take out Nadal in Australia, and his victory at Monte Carlo shows his clay chops.  But this is Nadal... at the French... over best of 5 sets.

Nadal d. Wawrinka

There is no question that Federer can beat Djokovic.  Roger’s already done it twice this year, once on clay, and owns a positive 18-16 record over Novak, lifetime.  If Nadal has already been eliminated, it might provide extra motivation for Roger to really push through this potential match.  But it could equally motivate Djokovic.  I have to think hunger and youth are on Djokovic’s side.

Djokovic d. Federer

A Nadal-Djokovic final is really what so many are hoping for.  The two top men in the game, vying for the title.  As a bonus, the winner will be #1 in the rankings.  There is so little to separate them.  Djokovic proved in Rome he’s in the form to take down Nadal.  But beating Nadal over best of five sets on clay is new territory for every active player. 

The analytical side of me thinks Novak is playing superior tennis at the moment.  But there are 6 matches for each man to ready for the encounter.   As I said above, the ease with which each man is winning and the form he’s displaying will make up my mind on match day if this match should come to pass.  But for now, I can’t choose against history and Nadal’s proven record.  By a whisker...

Nadal d. Djokovic

Odds

Decimal odds from Betfair – 20 May 2014



1
Nadal
2.52
2
Djokovic
2.74
3
Wawrinka
17.5
4
Ferrer
26
5
Federer
30
6
Murray
30
7
Nishikori
50
8
Tsonga
100
9
Berdych
130
10
Dimitrov
140
11
Raonic
160
12
Almagro
200
13
Fognini
220
14
Gulbis
340
15
Simon
400
16
Dolgopolov
440
17
Bautista Agut
560
18
Monfils
560
19
Giraldo
600
20
Thiem
600
21
Cilic
610
22
Janowicz
610
23
Gasquet
610
24
Verdasco
670
25
Andujar
750




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